Where the Bar Sits
Where the Bar Sits
M1 and M2 by Home State: the JEE Main Percentile That Actually Gets a Navodaya Student a Seat
About this paper. This is an analysis by Avanti Fellows, shared for transparency. It has not been peer-reviewed. It was prepared with substantial help from AI tools (Anthropic’s Claude), which wrote much of the code and drafted much of the text under the direction of Avanti staff. The numbers are produced by code from the underlying data, and the sources and methods are documented so they can be checked, but errors are possible.
The answer first
Section titled “The answer first”Avanti’s academic levels use one national bar per category. M1 is the M1b floor: Civil and Mechanical at five bottom-tier NITs, other-state quota (97.23 percentile for General). M2 is NTA’s qualifying cutoff (93.41 for General). This paper asks what those bars mean for a student from each state.
- M1 (a seat at an IIT, NIT or IIIT) is looser than the national bar almost everywhere. For a General student from any large state the loosest NIT or IIIT seat sits at percentile 95.4, against 97.23 today. The national bar is an academic benchmark set on purpose above the last seat.
- Small states with their own NIT are a different world. The home-state quota at NIT Mizoram admits General students down to an All-India Rank of 1,314,967 (percentile 13.3). One national bar under-credits them and over-credits students from large states.
- M2 (a seat at a good government college) splits the country in two. “Good” means more than half the B.Tech graduates placed in jobs and a median salary above ₹4 LPA. In the south and west, good government colleges admit on the state’s own exam, and qualifying JEE Main is a safe stand-in for getting in: only 37% of our 57 alumni at those colleges had qualified. In the north, apart from Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, the only good government colleges are the NITs, so M2 collapses to M1.
1. What M1 and M2 mean here
Section titled “1. What M1 and M2 mean here”| Definition | Status | |
|---|---|---|
| M1 | A seat at an IIT, NIT or IIIT. IITs admit on JEE Advanced, so the JEE Main bar comes from NITs and IIITs: the student’s own state’s NIT through the home-state quota, other NITs through the other-state quota, IIITs through the all-India quota. The bar is the loosest seat open to the student. | This is “M1 external” in academic-levels-cutoffs, recomputed here from josaa_fact_cutoffs because that build reads a local spreadsheet. Not a new definition. |
| M2 | A seat at a good government engineering college: more than 50% of B.Tech graduates placed in jobs and a median salary above ₹4 LPA (College DB). M1 colleges are good colleges too, so M2 is never harder than M1. | New. Today’s M2 in dim_test_cutoffs is the JEE qualifying cutoff; in the state-exam states this paper keeps exactly that. |
Private colleges are left out: our students cannot afford them.
2. From a closing rank to a percentile
Section titled “2. From a closing rank to a percentile”JoSAA publishes category ranks for reserved seats, and a category rank cannot be read as a percentile. Each one is converted to an All-India Rank with curves fitted on Avanti’s own JEE Main 2025 scorecards in BigQuery, each of which carries both the category rank and the All-India Rank (2,775 students; quadratic in log-log space, per category). The percentile then uses the number of candidates who sat that year, which every scorecard implies through its rank and percentile: 1,516,683. So percentile = 100 × (1 − AIR / 1,516,683).
Worked example. An SC student from Bihar: the loosest SC seat open to them in JoSAA 2025 is INDIAN INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SENAPATI MANIPUR (AI), closing at an SC category rank of 11,961. The SC curve turns that into an All-India Rank of about 2.2 lakh, percentile 86. The national SC M1 bar today is 80.48.
3. M1 by home state
Section titled “3. M1 by home state”JoSAA 2025 final round, Gender-Neutral seats, B.Tech and dual degrees (no Architecture or Planning), JEE Main percentile of the loosest seat open to the student:
| Home state | GEN | EWS | OBC | SC | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andaman and Nicobar Islands | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 86.7 | 95.4 | 57.3 | 14.6 | 29.1 |
| Assam | 94.7 | 93.9 | 89.5 | 85.3 | 76.5 |
| Bihar | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 67.3 |
| Chandigarh | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Chhattisgarh | 92.3 | 87.3 | 90.8 | 79.2 | 76.4 |
| Delhi | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Goa | 92.9 | 90.3 | 88.7 | 77.1 | 39.9 |
| Gujarat | 94.6 | 93.9 | 90.3 | 79.4 | 70.8 |
| Haryana | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 37.0 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 92.3 | 91.8 | 72.6 | 80.7 | 76.5 |
| Jammu and Kashmir | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Jharkhand | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Karnataka | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Kerala | 95.4 | 54.9 | 95.1 | 81.9 | 31.7 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Maharashtra | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Manipur | 65.1 | 95.4 | 34.5 | 76.4 | 26.8 |
| Meghalaya | 79.0 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 55.8 | 50.1 |
| Mizoram | 13.3 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 28.9 | 51.9 |
| Nagaland | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 37.1 |
| Odisha | 94.6 | 94.1 | 93.1 | 85.5 | 71.3 |
| Puducherry | 86.4 | 35.3 | 84.6 | 64.7 | 50.4 |
| Punjab | 94.1 | 93.9 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 18.6 |
| Rajasthan | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Sikkim | 58.5 | 95.4 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 39.2 |
| Tamil Nadu | 95.4 | 86.3 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 71.1 |
| Telangana | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Tripura | 77.1 | 26.0 | 95.1 | 63.0 | 16.6 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.1 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Uttarakhand | 95.4 | 95.4 | 92.8 | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| West Bengal | 95.4 | 92.4 | 92.0 | 85.6 | 66.6 |
| National bar today | 97.2 | 95.0 | 92.7 | 80.5 | 75.3 |
Where the home-state NIT has few applicants, the home-state quota closes very low. That is a real seat, but it is one college’s leftover seats in one state; we report it rather than build on it.
4. Which colleges are good
Section titled “4. Which colleges are good”Every college is rated from BigQuery first: its own NIRF data filing in nirf_fact_dcs_placements, latest
graduating year, graduates placed in jobs over graduates on time. The College DB (avantifellows/college-db)
supplies the list of colleges and their NIRF ids; its own placement figure is used only where BigQuery has no
filing from 2021-22 or later, and the tables say which. Of 128 government and IIT/NIT/IIIT
engineering colleges rated, 91 are rated from BigQuery and 37 from the College DB; 113 pass.
Government status comes from AISHE for 93 of them (a university-run college takes its university’s type),
otherwise from the College DB’s type. Outside the IITs, NITs and IIITs:
| State | Good government colleges (not IIT/NIT/IIIT) | Rated from its own NIRF filing (BigQuery) | Rated from the College DB (no recent filing in BigQuery) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andaman and Nicobar Islands | 1 | — | Dr B R Ambedkar Institute Of Technology (NIRF, college site) |
| Andhra Pradesh | 2 | Andhra University College Of Engineering(A) (NIRF 2023-24); Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University Kakinada (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
| Chandigarh | 1 | Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
| Delhi | 4 | Delhi Technological University (NIRF 2023-24); Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University (NIRF 2023-24); Indira Gandhi Delhi Technical University For Women (NIRF 2022-23); Netaji Subhas University Of Technology (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
| Goa | 1 | — | Goa College Of Engineering (Government Of Goa) (no source) |
| Karnataka | 2 | — | Dr Ambedkar Institute Of Technology Bangalore (no source); University Vishweshwaraya College Of Engineering (web page) |
| Kerala | 1 | College Of Engineering Trivandrum (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
| Madhya Pradesh | 3 | IET DAVV, Indore; MITS Gwalior; Ujjain Engineering College | — |
| Maharashtra | 7 | Coep Technological University (NIRF 2022-23); Government College of Engineering, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar (NIRF, college site 2024-25); Institute Of Chemical Technology Mumbai (NIRF 2023-24); Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute Matunga Mumbai 400 019 (NIRF 2023-24); Government College of Engineering, Nagpur | Government Engineering College Infront Of V M V Amravati (web page); University Of Mumbai (NIRF, college site) |
| Odisha | 1 | — | Indira Gandhi Institute Of Technology (Igit) Sarang (NIRF, college site) |
| Puducherry | 1 | Puducherry Technological University Puducherry (NIRF 2021-22) | — |
| Tamil Nadu | 5 | Anna University Chennai (NIRF 2023-24) | Alagappa Chettiar Government College Of Engineering And Technology Karaikudi (web page); College Of Engineering Guindy Campus (NIRF); Government College Of Technology (NIRF); Madras Institute Of Technology Campus (NIRF) |
| Telangana | 1 | University College Of Engineering Kothagudam (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
| West Bengal | 1 | Jadavpur University Kolkata (NIRF 2023-24) | — |
Where each figure comes from. For the good colleges above and the IITs, NITs and IIITs that set the M1 bars:
| Where the figure comes from | IIT / NIT / IIIT | State government colleges | Good colleges |
|---|---|---|---|
| BigQuery: NIRF filing, nirfindia.org | 57 | 28 | 85 |
| BigQuery: NIRF filing, college website | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| College DB: NIRF filing, nirfindia.org | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| College DB: NIRF filing, college website | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| College DB: other web page | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| College DB: Avanti estimate | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| College DB: no source | 0 | 2 | 2 |
The College DB keeps provenance only in a free-text link, so its type is read off that link (a link that names NIRF
counts as a NIRF filing). Two good colleges rated from the College DB have no source at all:
Dr Ambedkar Institute Of Technology Bangalore; Goa College Of Engineering (Government Of Goa). They are kept, because nothing contradicts them, but their figures cannot be checked.
Gaps. The College DB has no placement data for any Madhya Pradesh state college, and none for 49 government
colleges our own alumni attend; two rows are mis-typed. Raised as
college-db#2. Some of those colleges publish their own NIRF data submissions on their websites, and these are now in BigQuery
(nirf_fact_dcs_placements, pdf_source = 'institute_website') for Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Colleges
the College DB does not list at all are added from a short list in sources/assumptions.yaml, with government status
from the state’s own counselling table. Of 8 government colleges added this way, 4 pass:
| College | State | Graduating year | Placed / graduated | Placed | Median salary | Good | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University B.D.T College of Engineering, Davanagere | Karnataka | 2024-25 | 233 / 425 | 55% | ₹4.00 L | no | NIRF filing, college website |
| IET DAVV, Indore | Madhya Pradesh | 2024-25 | 393 / 440 | 89% | ₹7.20 L | yes | NIRF filing, college website |
| SATI Vidisha | Madhya Pradesh | 2021-22 | 322 / 457 | 70% | ₹3.80 L | no | NIRF filing, college website |
| MITS Gwalior | Madhya Pradesh | 2022-23 | 568 / 809 | 70% | ₹4.50 L | yes | NIRF filing, college website |
| Ujjain Engineering College | Madhya Pradesh | 2024-25 | 176 / 290 | 61% | ₹4.31 L | yes | NIRF filing, college website |
| Rewa Engineering College | Madhya Pradesh | 2023-24 | 128 / 321 | 40% | ₹4.00 L | no | NIRF filing, college website |
| Government College of Engineering, Nagpur | Maharashtra | 2024-25 | 172 / 326 | 53% | ₹5.65 L | yes | NIRF filing, college website |
| Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Technological University, Lonere | Maharashtra | 2024-25 | 74 / 401 | 18% | ₹4.20 L | no | NIRF filing, college website |
SGSITS Indore, UIT-RGPV Bhopal and Jabalpur EC are not in BigQuery yet, so they are not counted.
5. M2 by home state
Section titled “5. M2 by home state”How each state’s bar is set:
- State-exam states (Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Gujarat, Goa): KCET, MHT-CET, TNEA and the rest rank students on their own scale, with no JEE equivalent. The bar is qualifies JEE Main. The alumni check (Section 6) shows this is conservative.
- Madhya Pradesh. MP’s good government colleges (Ujjain Engineering College; MITS Gwalior; IET DAVV, Indore; Section 4) admit through MP DTE counselling on the JEE Main rank. For MP-domicile students the loosest seats close near the last rank: the leftover branches. So the MP bar, like the state-exam states’, is floored at qualifies JEE Main.
- Delhi. DTU, NSUT and IGDTUW admit on JEE Main through JAC Delhi, which has no cutoff table in BigQuery. The bar is the 10th-percentile JEE percentile of the Avanti alumni who got in (General 87.0).
- Everywhere else the good government colleges are the NITs and IIITs plus a few JoSAA colleges (PEC Chandigarh, IIEST Shibpur, Puducherry Technological University), so M2 is the loosest of those seats: at most a point or two below M1.
| Home state | GEN | EWS | OBC | SC | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andaman and Nicobar Islands | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 86.7 | 93.7 | 57.3 | 14.6 | 29.1 |
| Assam | 94.1 | 93.7 | 89.5 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Bihar | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 67.3 |
| Chandigarh | 92.3 | 63.9 | 93.2 | 71.1 | 75.3 |
| Chhattisgarh | 92.3 | 87.3 | 90.8 | 79.2 | 75.3 |
| Delhi | 87.0 | 84.7 | 84.1 | 66.2 | 53.5 |
| Goa | 92.9 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 39.9 |
| Gujarat | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Haryana | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 37.0 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 92.3 | 91.8 | 72.6 | 80.7 | 75.3 |
| Jammu and Kashmir | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Jharkhand | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Karnataka | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Kerala | 93.4 | 54.9 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 31.7 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 93.4 | 93.7 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Maharashtra | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Manipur | 65.1 | 93.7 | 34.5 | 76.4 | 26.8 |
| Meghalaya | 79.0 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 55.8 | 50.1 |
| Mizoram | 13.3 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 28.9 | 51.9 |
| Nagaland | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 37.1 |
| Odisha | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.1 | 85.1 | 71.3 |
| Puducherry | 72.1 | 35.3 | 65.5 | 39.0 | 50.4 |
| Punjab | 94.1 | 93.7 | 86.1 | 82.7 | 18.6 |
| Rajasthan | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Sikkim | 58.5 | 93.7 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 39.2 |
| Tamil Nadu | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Telangana | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| Tripura | 77.1 | 26.0 | 93.2 | 63.0 | 16.6 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 94.1 | 93.7 | 93.2 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| Uttarakhand | 94.1 | 93.7 | 92.8 | 85.1 | 75.3 |
| West Bengal | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
| National bar today | 93.4 | 82.4 | 80.9 | 63.9 | 52.0 |
6. The alumni check
Section titled “6. The alumni check”For every good government college, the JEE Main percentiles of the Avanti alumni who went there (JEE 2019 onward; before 2019 JEE Main reported marks, not percentiles):
| Colleges that admit on | Alumni | JEE-qualified | GEN (p10 / median) | OBC | SC | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEE Main | 283 | 95% | 87 / 96 | 82 / 92 | 66 / 82 | 54 / 79 |
| state exam | 57 | 37% | 35 / 68 | 24 / 62 | 36 / 54 | 24 / 66 |
- State-exam colleges admit well below JEE qualifying. Only 37% of 57 alumni at good government state-exam colleges had qualified JEE Main; the median General alumnus was at percentile 68. So “qualifies JEE Main” is a bar these students clear with room to spare, not a prediction of the last seat.
- JEE-route colleges admit near the qualifying line. 95% of 283 alumni there had qualified; the 10th-percentile General alumnus was at 87, SC at 66.
| College | State | Admits on | Alumni (JEE 2019+) | 10th pct JEE | Median JEE | JEE-qualified |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi Technological University | Delhi | JEE Main | 110 | 77 | 92 | 96% |
| Netaji Subhas University Of Technology | Delhi | JEE Main | 95 | 79 | 93 | 94% |
| Indira Gandhi Delhi Technical University For Women | Delhi | JEE Main | 49 | 68 | 87 | 98% |
| Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University | Delhi | JEE Main | 17 | 73 | 87 | 100% |
| Punjab Engineering College Chandigarh | Chandigarh | JEE Main | 7 | 81 | 87 | 100% |
| Indira Gandhi Institute Of Technology (Igit) Sarang | Odisha | JEE Main | 4 | 70 | 77 | 75% |
| University Vishweshwaraya College Of Engineering | Karnataka | state exam | 24 | 29 | 66 | 38% |
| Goa College Of Engineering (Government Of Goa) | Goa | state exam | 14 | 27 | 58 | 14% |
| Dr Ambedkar Institute Of Technology Bangalore | Karnataka | state exam | 14 | 18 | 58 | 43% |
7. What this changes, and what it does not
Section titled “7. What this changes, and what it does not”- Nothing in the potential model changes yet. It still uses the national bars; switching to state bars is a choice, not a correction, because the state bars include one-college home-state quotas.
- The national M1 bar is an aspiration, the state M1 bar is a seat. Avanti’s M1 deliberately sits above the last NIT seat. Reporting “on track for M1” against the state bar would count many more students as M1.
- The north has thin M2 options. Outside Delhi and MP, a northern student’s good government seat is an NIT seat. That is the case for doubling down on reaching M1 there, and for finding more good colleges (the College DB gaps above).
- Odisha. IGIT Sarang admits on JEE Main through OJEE; it is in the alumni check but its OJEE cutoffs are not yet wired into the bar.
Methodology and assumptions
Section titled “Methodology and assumptions”| # | Choice | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | JoSAA 2025 final round, Gender-Neutral, base categories, no PwD, no preparatory ranks, no Architecture or Planning. | The last allotment is the true closing rank; female-only and PwD seats are separate pools. |
| 2 | M1 = loosest NIT/IIIT seat open to the student under the home-state / other-state / all-India rules. | Same rule as M1 external in academic-levels-cutoffs. |
| 3 | Category rank → AIR with curves fitted on our own 2025 JEE Main scorecards (BigQuery); percentile = 100 × (1 − AIR / 1,516,683), the pool implied by those scorecards’ ranks and percentiles. | Everything from BigQuery. The curves agree with academic-levels-cutoffs’ earlier fit to within a percentile point for nearly every state and category. |
| 4 | Good = more than 50% of graduates placed in jobs and a median salary above ₹4 LPA, read from the college’s own NIRF filing in BigQuery (latest graduating year, 2021-22 or later), else from the College DB. Government only, by AISHE where mapped. | Avanti’s definition (8 Oct 2026). A filing states its year and source; the College DB keeps neither in a structured field. Our students cannot afford private colleges. |
| 5 | JoSAA institutes matched to the College DB by institute type and place name; 54 of 101 match, wrong matches excluded by hand (listed in sources/assumptions.yaml). |
Names differ between the two sources. |
| 6 | State-exam states and Madhya Pradesh: M2 = qualifies JEE Main. | No JEE equivalent of a state-exam rank; MP’s loosest seats are leftovers. Checked against alumni (Section 6). |
| 7 | Delhi: M2 = 10th-percentile JEE percentile of alumni at DTU, NSUT, IGDTUW. | No JAC Delhi cutoff table. |
| 8 | Alumni check uses JEE 2019 onward, matched on the year the alumnus entered college. | JEE Main reported marks before 2019. |
Related analyses
Section titled “Related analyses”| Analysis | Relation |
|---|---|
| Academic Levels | The national M1 and M2 bars this paper compares against |
| academic-levels-cutoffs | M1 external, the M1 definition used here (recomputed from BigQuery) |
| college-prediction | Deferred its NIT track for want of home-state quota logic; Section 3 supplies it |
| JNV potential | Sizes the CoEs the Navodaya system could fill, using the national bars |
Replication data
Section titled “Replication data”bars.py reads BigQuery (josaa_fact_cutoffs, dim_alumni, fact_student_jee_main_results_overall) and the
sources hub (college_database.csv from avantifellows/college-db @ 287569e; MP DTE Round-1 opening and closing
ranks for 2025 and 2026), and writes output/state_bars.csv, output/alumni_good_govt.csv and
output/state_bars.json. paper_render.py fills this paper from them.