Literature and commentary: what bears on the five claims
13 September 2026. Five research agents, one theme each. The sandbox could not open any web page, so every entry rests on a search-engine excerpt of the cited document; “excerpt-quoted” means the number itself appeared in the excerpt. Open the URL before quoting anything outside this folder. Warehouse figures are marked [W].
The five claims
Section titled “The five claims”- T1 The state funds the top (IITs, NITs) and the bottom (ITIs, ₹60,000 cr PM-SETU) of the technical ladder and leaves the middle — state engineering colleges, polytechnics, post-degree diplomas, skilled degrees — to fee-charging private providers.
- T2 Demand for general degrees is driven by government-job eligibility and the exam queue, plus the degree’s screening and marriage-market value, not by labour-market returns; most employed graduates work in jobs that need no degree.
- T3 ITIs serve those who leave school at Class 10; asking Class-12 passers and graduates to “switch to ITI” lowers their pay-level eligibility, so they rationally do not.
- T4 The instruments that can move the mass are polytechnics and diplomas, skilled degrees and degree-plus-certificate routes; none has a central push comparable to PM-SETU.
- T5 Polytechnics have the best employment profile of any pathway but half their seats are empty and half their entrants do not complete; the binding constraints are unknown.
Synthesis: where the five tables land
Section titled “Synthesis: where the five tables land”Well supported.
- T2’s queue mechanism is the best-evidenced thing in the literature: Mangal’s quasi-experiment (an 86% cut in Tamil Nadu state vacancies raised exam preparation and delayed work), 60–65% government-job preference across three Lokniti waves, 300–1,500 applicants per vacancy, a public-sector wage premium of 62–102% over formal private work that is largest at the low-skill rungs (Glinskaya and Lokshin; Gindling et al.), and graduate unemployment of 29% against 3% for the illiterate (ILO-IHD 2024). The Economic Survey 2024-25’s own figure — 8.25% of graduates in qualification-matched jobs — is the strongest single statistic, and it is the government’s.
- T1’s fiscal shape is documented at the Centre: ₹41,303 cr to central institutions in 2026-27 against ₹300 cr for MERITE that year (PRS); PM-SETU ₹60,000 cr against MERITE ₹4,200 cr over five years; private-unaided enrolment share rising from 25% to 58% between 2000 and 2013 “because states could not step up funding” (Duraisamy); the fiscal-federalism literature explaining why state-owned polytechnics, with no centrally sponsored scheme to match, lose out. And the public middle is hollow too: Karnataka’s government engineering colleges run 50% faculty vacancies and 27% empty seats; AICTE itself is 64% vacant.
- T4’s absence of a push is confirmed by absence: no B.Voc outcome study exists; NCrF is notified in a third of states; PM Internship spent under 1% of its allocation and lost 54% of its first round; PMKVY placed 7–41% depending on source across ten years.
Contested or unsourced.
- T5’s “best employment profile” rests on PLFS alone [W]. No external source supports it; the India Skills Report ranks polytechnics last on its test-score measure (33%), and no polytechnic completion rate surfaced anywhere. The claim survives because ISR measures a test, not work, and PLFS measures work — but the paper must say so, and must not present polytechnic vacancy as distinctive when engineering degree seats are 30–44% empty too.
- T2 is weakened by the returns literature. Per-year returns to schooling were 8.5% and rising with level on IHDS 2005 (Agrawal), tertiary returns rose through 2004 (Azam), and PLFS 2018-19 still shows the highest returns for graduates and diplomas (IZA 15002). Devaluation is a post-2004-cohort phenomenon (Mishra; “Degrees of Devaluation”), concentrated where colleges expanded fastest and hitting SC/ST graduates hardest. Degree demand may be a lagged rational response, not a queue artefact. The two readings are compatible but the paper must hold both.
- T3 is contested by ITI placement claims of 80–97% in Delhi and Tamil Nadu ITIs (press, institute-reported) against the DGT national tracer’s 51% unemployed. Both are self-reported; the paper should use PLFS [W] and the DGT regulator minutes, not either.
- T1’s “left to private” is complicated by over-building. The private engineering middle is not absent but collapsing under its own vacancy (30–60%, 58 closures a year, 2 lakh seats added into 30% vacancy in 2024-25 after AICTE dropped the accreditation precondition). The problem reads as quality and demand, not provision.
- The counter to any “PM-SETU for polytechnics”: absorptive capacity. The 500-polytechnic upgrade scheme delivered 105; PMKVY 4.0 used 14% of its budget; PM Internship under 1%; STRIVE spent ₹712 cr of ₹2,200 cr. Money for the middle has existed and gone unspent.
- The 51.25% “employability” figure (Economic Survey 2023-24, from the Wheebox test) should not be used: a self-selected online test co-branded with AICTE, not a labour-market outcome.
Directly useful for the recommendations.
- NITI Aayog’s 2026 papers already propose skills-first PSU hiring pilots and vocational tracks from Class 9; the Economic Survey 2026 asks whether ITI credentials should ladder to degrees; Afridi and Chandna (NCAER, 2026) argue for NCrF portability ITI → polytechnic → higher education. The credential-rules lever the paper reaches for is already in official language.
- The J-PAL DDU-GKY trial (Chakravorty et al., JDE 2024): two information sessions raised job retention 18% by screening out over-optimistic trainees — expectations, not skills, drive attrition. Cheap and relevant to completion in polytechnics.
- Korea’s Meister schools (73% employed vs 38% for general high school), Germany’s dual system (~50% of a cohort, 68% retained by the training firm), China’s 2022 law granting vocational education “equal status”: mass movement into vocational routes has happened only with state design of the credential’s standing, never by exhortation.
Table A. Demand for degrees and the government-job queue
Section titled “Table A. Demand for degrees and the government-job queue”| # | Author(s) / org | Year | Type | Data and method | Key finding | Bearing | URL | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | Mangal, K. (J. Dev. Econ.) | 2024 | peer-reviewed | Tamil Nadu 2001-06 hiring freeze; DiD | Freeze cut 86% of vacancies; exposed cohorts increased exam prep, delayed work, earn less a decade later | T2 supports | https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v171y2024ics0304387824000804.html | excerpt-quoted |
| A2 | Mangal (APU CSE WP) | 2021 | working paper | Lifetime-earnings model of prepare-vs-exit | Rational age to quit preparation | T2 supports | https://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/4314/1/CSE-Kunal41-June2021.pdf | excerpt |
| A3 | Mangal, “Chasing Government Jobs” | 2021 | working paper | TNPSC candidate study | >500k applicants, acceptance <0.1%; ~1,500 per vacancy in MPSC | T2 supports | https://www.mercatus.org/ideasofindia/kunal-mangal-chasing-government-jobs-india | excerpt-quoted |
| A4 | Jeffrey, Timepass | 2010 | peer-reviewed | Ethnography, Meerut | “Timepass” in government universities while waiting for state jobs | T2 supports | https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1548-1425.2010.01266.x | excerpt |
| A5 | Jeffrey, Jeffery & Jeffery, Degrees Without Freedom? | 2008 | book | 14 months, rural western UP | Education a “contradictory resource”; mass educated unemployment | T2 supports | https://www.sup.org/books/asian-studies/degrees-without-freedom | excerpt |
| A6 | Lokniti-CSDS / KAS Youth Study | 2016-17 | survey | 6,122 respondents 15–34 | 65% prefer a government job, unchanged from 2007 | T2 supports | https://www.lokniti.org/media/upload_files/KeyfindingsfromtheYouthStudy.pdf | excerpt-quoted |
| A7 | Lokniti-CSDS Youth Survey | 2023 | survey | national | ~60% prefer government job; own-business 16% (2007) → 27% | T2 nuances | https://www.lokniti.org/content/Lokniti-CSDS-Survey | excerpt-quoted |
| A8 | Azim Premji Univ., public-sector recruitment report | 2023 | report | exam admin data + surveys | >1,000 applications per vacancy on some exams; demand rooted in “disappointment with private sector” | T2 supports | https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/publications/2023/report/the-indian-labour-market-through-the-lens-of-public-sector-recruitment | excerpt-quoted |
| A9 | Glinskaya & Lokshin (WB WP 3574; JID 2007) | 2005/07 | working paper → peer-reviewed | NSS 1993-94, 1999-2000; selection correction | Public premium 62–102% over formal private, 164–259% over informal; largest for low-skilled, women, rural | T2 supports; T3 nuances | https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3574.html | excerpt-quoted |
| A10 | Gindling, Hasnain, Newhouse & Shi (WB WP 8754) | 2019 | working paper → peer-reviewed | 91 countries | Premium largely disappears controlling for occupation; high-skilled often face a penalty; premium higher for low-skilled | T2 nuances: queue value is at lower-tier posts | https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/398361551117216050/pdf/WPS8754.pdf | excerpt |
| A11 | Agrawal, T. (IGIDR) | 2011 | working paper | IHDS 2004-05 | 8.5% return per year; returns rise with level | T2 contradicts (degrees paid in 2005) | http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2011-017.pdf | excerpt-quoted |
| A12 | Azam, M. (World Dev.) | 2012 | peer-reviewed | Urban NSS 1983–2004 | Tertiary returns rose sharply 1993–2004, upper quantiles | T2 contradicts for that period | https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v40y2012i6p1135-1150.html | excerpt |
| A13 | Chen, Kanjilal-Bhaduri & Pastore (IZA DP 15002) | 2022 | working paper | PLFS 2018-19; Mincer/IV | Returns per year: secondary 4.5%, HS 5.8%, graduate+diploma 9.8% | T2 nuances; T4 nuances | https://docs.iza.org/dp15002.pdf | excerpt |
| A14 | “Degrees of Devaluation” (arXiv 2606.22620; cites Mishra 2024) | 2026 | working paper | NSS 1987–2011 × AISHE district expansion | Graduate premium 1.64 → 0.93 log points across cohorts; post-2004 high-expansion districts: −9%, SC/ST a further −34% | T2 supports; T1 nuances | https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.22620 | excerpt-quoted |
| A15 | ILO–IHD India Employment Report | 2024 | multilateral report | PLFS 2000–2022 | Graduate unemployment 29.1% vs 3.4% illiterate; educated share of unemployed youth 35% → 66% | T2 supports | https://www.ilo.org/publications/india-employment-report-2024-youth-employment-education-and-skills | excerpt-quoted |
| A16 | MoSPI PLFS annual reports | 2023/24 | govt report | household survey | Graduate UR 13.4% (2022-23) vs 3.2% overall; WPR 73.6% diploma vs 57.5% graduates | T2, T5 support | https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2057970 | excerpt-quoted |
| A17 | Data for India, “What do India’s graduates do?” | 2025 | data journalism | PLFS 2023-24 | Two-thirds of graduate workers in services; supply–demand gap widening | T2 supports | https://www.dataforindia.com/graduate-employment/ | excerpt |
| A18 | Azim Premji Univ., State of Working India 2023 | 2023 | report | PLFS 2021-22 | ~40% of graduates under 25 unemployed; 67% of unemployed 20–29 are graduates; ~7% of unemployed graduates get permanent salaried work within a year | T2 supports | https://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/5166/1/State_of_Working_India_2023_ebook_revised.pdf | excerpt-quoted |
| A19 | Adams-Prassl & Andrew (QJE 140(3)) | 2025 | peer-reviewed | Rajasthan parents; choice experiments | Removing perceived marriage-market return → 60% drop in girls in school at 16 | T2 supports (schooling) | https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/140/3/2107/8113989 | excerpt-quoted |
| A20 | Lin, Desai & Chen (Demography 57) | 2020 | peer-reviewed | IHDS marriage cohorts | Educational hypogamy rising | T2 nuances | https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/57/4/1215/168096 | excerpt |
| A21 | “Marriage markets and the rise of dowry in India” (JDE 164) | 2023 | peer-reviewed | 74,000 rural marriages 1930–99 | Dowry tripled in real value; groom differentiation by jobs and education | T2 supports | https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v164y2023ics0304387823000706.html | excerpt-quoted |
| A22 | TISS SPPG, food-delivery platform study | c.2020 | survey report | rider survey | 77% Class 12 or below; ~23% graduates or above | T2 nuances | https://tiss.ac.in/uploads/files/Online_Food_Delivery_Platform.pdf | excerpt-quoted |
| A23 | SHRM South Asia | c.2021 | blog | practitioner | Employers raise degree minimums to screen; “incentivised credentials, not competence” | T2 supports | https://blog.shrm.org/sasia/blog/degree-inflation-is-it-unfair-1 | excerpt |
| A24 | Scroll.in, Patna coaching centres | 2022 | reportage | field | Centres at ₹300–400 a month, 2,000–5,000 enrolled each, for Group C/D posts | T2, T3 support | https://scroll.in/article/1019543/inside-patnas-exam-hub-where-a-million-hopes-die-every-year | excerpt-quoted |
| A25 | Free Press Journal (government data); The Federal | 2024-25 | news | Parliament data | 1.87 crore applicants for 64,197 railway posts (291:1); UPSC 10–13 lakh for 800–1,000 posts | T2 supports | https://www.freepressjournal.in/education/railway-recruitment-187-crore-candidates-vied-for-64197-railway-posts-in-2024-govt-data-shows | excerpt-quoted |
Table B. Outcomes of ITIs, polytechnics and formal vocational training
Section titled “Table B. Outcomes of ITIs, polytechnics and formal vocational training”| # | Author / org | Year | Type | Data and method | Key finding | Bearing | URL | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | ILO / DGE&T (Gasskov et al.) | 2003 | evaluation | 121 ITIs, 3 states | 30–40% of completers employed or self-employed | T3, T5 nuance | https://www.voced.edu.au/content/ngv:1141 | excerpt |
| B2 | World Bank (Tan, Goyal, Savchenko) | 2007 | census + tracer | 1,375 public ITIs | 32% of pass-outs employed within a year | baseline | https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/306741467991956807 | excerpt |
| B3 | Sharada Prasad Committee | 2016 | government review | system review | Irregularities in SSCs; ~3,600 new vocational colleges proposed; PMKVY placement 12% | T4 supports | https://nationalskillsnetwork.in/sharada-prasad-report/ | excerpt |
| B4 | DGT national tracer | 2018 | tracer | ITI pass-outs by state | Placement 64% (CTS), 77% (upgraded), 59% (CoE); UP 30.5%; Delhi 100% — self-reported | T3, T5 nuance | https://dgt.gov.in/sites/default/files/pdf/Tracer%20Study%20of%20ITI%20Graduates-Final%20report.pdf | excerpt |
| B5 | DGT / STRIVE national tracer | c.2023 | tracer | 11,136 pass-outs | 85% economically active; 49% of active in wage or self-employment; 51% unemployed but available; 24.5% outside trade | T3 supports | https://dgt.gov.in/sites/default/files/National%20Tracer%20Study%20-%20STRIVE.pdf | excerpt |
| B6 | DGT / STRIVE Karnataka tracer | 2024 | tracer | 5,185 alumni | ~1 in 5 unemployed; women 38% vs men 18% | T3 nuance | https://dgt.gov.in/sites/default/files/2024-05/Tracer%20Study%20of%20ITI%20Graduates%20in%20the%20state%20of%20Karnataka.pdf | excerpt |
| B7 | DGT / DT&E Uttar Pradesh, Tracer Study of ITI Graduates in UP | Dec 2023 | tracer | 9,644 graduates, 321 of 3,210 UP ITIs, 69% govt; unweighted, replacement sampling, institute staff present at most interviews | 8.7% employed, 0.6% apprenticeship, 22.3% not looking, 68.4% unemployed, denominator the whole sample (Table 1.1). Worsens over the following year: unemployment 68.5% → 70.5%. By type: private-STRIVE 22.4%, govt-STRIVE 11.3%, private non-project 9.4%, govt non-project 7.4%. Pay: joining ₹11,500, current ₹14,400. Graduates applied for 1.9 jobs, attended 0.6 interviews. OJT 20% against 54% nationally. Of 55 apprentices, 43.6% unemployed. The 30.5% placed this table previously carried is NOT in the document | T3 | https://dgt.gov.in/sites/default/files/2024-05/Tracer%20Study%20of%20ITI%20Graduates%20in%20the%20state%20of%20Uttar%20Pradesh.pdf | opened 14 Sep 2026 |
| B8 | NITI Aayog, Transforming ITIs | Jan 2023 | policy study | 40+ principals, 100 instructors, 1,000+ trainees; unweighted | 36% of sanctioned instructor posts filled (14% to 90% by state); 14,789 institutes, 3,194 govt / 11,595 private (22 Sep 2022); utilisation 56.7% govt vs 43.1% private; 990 institutes (8%) meet the STRIVE grading bar, average grade 1.41/5; ~₹10,000 cr a year on govt ITIs; 20% cap on ITI entry to polytechnic year 2. 0.09% placement WITHDRAWN — counts dashboard reporting, not placement; the report’s own fn. 11-12 say the MIS is not updated and its field visits found 20-80%. ₹1.32 lakh per student is per year, 20 govt ITIs in Delhi/Faridabad, 2020-21, inflated by 39.9% seat utilisation | T3, T5 support; placement data broken | https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-02/ITI_Report_02022023_0.pdf | opened 14 Sep 2026 |
| B9 | NITI Aayog, Education and Skilling for Employment | 2026 | working paper | secondary incl. ISR | ITI “employability” 46%, polytechnic 33%; 8.25% of graduates qualification-matched; skilled generic graduate ₹29,000 vs ₹22,000 unskilled | T5 contradicts on ISR measure; T2, T4 support | https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-03/Education-and-Skilling-for-Employment-From-Credentials-to-Learning-Outcomes.pdf | excerpt |
| B10 | NITI Aayog, Reimagining Skilling for Viksit Bharat@2047 | 2026 | policy report | framework | Vocational tracks from Grade 9; ₹600 cr ISSA; no polytechnic push | T4 nuance | https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-08/Reimagining-Skilling-for-Viksit-Bharat-2047.pdf | excerpt |
| B11 | World Bank STRIVE ICR | 2025 | completion report | 500 ITIs, ₹2,200 cr | ₹712 cr spent; outcome 4/6; placement below 50% target | T1 nuance | https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050625173546044/pdf/BOSIB-86ca4a4b-bcf3-4b0a-a02b-3b78218f12f8.pdf | excerpt |
| B12 | World Bank PM-SETU PAD / press | 2026 | appraisal | 1,000 ITIs, $830m | Baseline placement “less than 50%”; >1m better-skilled a year | T1, T4 | https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/02/02/world-bank-supports-india-s-ambitious-skills-program-to-better-prepare-youth-for-the-job-market | excerpt |
| B13 | ILO–IHD India Employment Report | 2024 | report | PLFS 2000–2022 | Formal VT “associated with low WPR and unemployment”; educated share of unemployed 35% → 66% | T2 supports; T3 nuance | https://www.ilo.org/publications/india-employment-report-2024-youth-employment-education-and-skills | excerpt |
| B14 | Mehrotra (APU) | 2021 | working paper | institutional review | Model-ITI funds 58% civil works, 31% equipment, little on instructors | T4, T5 support | https://publications.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/4333/1/Mehrotra_TVET_India_Feb_2021.pdf | excerpt |
| B15 | Mehrotra & Sharma, The Wire | 2024-25 | commentary | PLFS 2017-18 vs 2023-24 | “Vocationally trained” jump driven by 1-day to 1-week RPL; share in 2-year+ courses halved to 29% | T3, T4 nuance | https://m.thewire.in/article/labour/the-illusion-of-skill-development-in-india-decoding-the-sudden-increase-in-the-vocationally-trained | excerpt |
| B16 | Education + Training (Emerald) | 2023 | Heckman | PLFS | Formal VET +13.5% vs none; full-time VET after ≤secondary pays; part-time only for uneducated | T3 supports (VET pays below Class 12) | https://emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/et-09-2021-0338/full/html | excerpt |
| B17 | Venugopal (IES) | 2025 | regressions | PLFS 2023-24 | 4.1% formal VET; formal trainees more often salaried; ~11% premium | T3, T4 nuance | https://www.ies.gov.in/pdfs/Vishnu-KVenugopal-march25.pdf | excerpt |
| B18 | Indian J. Labour Economics, VE and wage gap | 2025 | regressions | NSS/PLFS 2011-12 → 2023-24 | VET–wage link positive 2011-18, insignificant by 2023-24, “plausibly influx of short-term courses” | T3, T4 support; returns eroding | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41027-025-00558-0 | excerpt |
| B19 | Ahmed (2016); Agrawal & Agrawal (2017) | 2016-17 | Mincer | NSS 68th; NSS 2004-05 | VET returns above general secondary; over-supply of over-educated lowers reservation wages | T2 supports; T3 nuance | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13636820.2017.1303785 | excerpt |
| B20 | Azim Premji Univ., SWI 2023 / 2026 | 2023, 2026 | report | PLFS, ITI directories | ITIs ~3× since 2005, mostly private, quality fell; “no perceptible association” between ITI and factory locations | T1, T2 support | https://azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/publications/2026/report/swi-2026 | excerpt |
| B21 | AICTE data via Careers360 | 2024-25 | admin data | sanctioned vs filled | Polytechnic seats 33–48% vacant; 3,566 polytechnics, 59% private; enrolment declining; 5 qualified for autonomy | T5 supports; completion not found | https://news.careers360.com/polytechnic-courses-diploma-engineering-colleges-crisis-aicte-autonomy-vacant-seats-teacher-low-poly-admission-jobs-10th-12th | excerpt |
| B22 | Economic Survey 2026 (via Careers360) | 2026 | government | — | Asks whether ITI credentials should ladder to degrees; “underutilisation of capacity, subpar training quality” | T3, T4 support | https://news.careers360.com/economic-survey-2026-industrial-training-institute-iti-diploma-degree-job-skill-india-development-national-apprenticeship-scheme | excerpt |
| B23 | CAG Report 20 of 2025, PMKVY | 2025 | audit | 2015–22 | 23 of 56 lakh certified placed (41%), self-reported by partners; bank details missing for 94% | T4 nuance | https://cag.gov.in/uploads/download_audit_report/2025/Report-No.-20-of-2025_PA-PMKVY_English-PDF-A-06943abec463479.68516873.pdf | excerpt |
| B24 | Wheebox–CII–AICTE India Skills Report | 2025 | industry test | 6.5 lakh self-selected test-takers | Graduates 54.8% “employable”; ITI 46%; polytechnic 33% | T5 contradicts on this metric; test score, not placement | https://wheebox.com/assets/pdf/ISR_Report_2025.pdf | excerpt |
| B25 | Chakravorty et al., J. Dev. Econ. (J-PAL) | 2024 | RCT | DDU-GKY Bihar/Jharkhand | Two information sessions → 18% more likely to stay in placed job, via exit of over-optimistic trainees | T3 nuance; useful for completion | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387824000221 | excerpt |
| B26 | ASI 2022-23 via Business Standard | 2024 | admin data | 253k factories | 40.7% of workers on contract, record high (42% in 2023-24) | T3 supports | https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/40-workers-in-formal-manufacturing-sector-on-contract-in-fy23-asi-data-124110300392_1.html | excerpt |
| B27 | NEEM discontinuation | 2022 | government order | — | Scheme discontinued 23 Dec 2022; EPFO had ruled trainees not exempt from “employee” | T4 supports | https://ksandk.com/newsletter/neem-to-be-discontinued-with-immediate-effect/ | excerpt |
Table C. Higher-education expansion and the private engineering sector
Section titled “Table C. Higher-education expansion and the private engineering sector”| # | Author / org | Year | Type | Data and method | Key finding | Bearing | URL | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Kapur & Mehta (Harvard CID WP 108) | 2004 | working paper | political economy | HE “de facto privatized on a massive scale” by state discretion, not design | T1 supports | https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/cid/files/publications/faculty-working-papers/108.pdf | excerpt |
| C2 | Kapur (Seminar 617; NBER ch.) | 2009/11 | essay | synthesis | “Trilemma”: scale, cost, quality; private influx imparts little skill | T1 nuances | https://www.india-seminar.com/2011/617/617_devesh_kapur.htm | verbatim |
| C3 | Kapur & Mehta (eds), Navigating the Labyrinth | 2017 | edited volume | chapters | Expansion driven by demographics and private colleges | T1, T4 context | https://cprindia.org/navigating-the-labyrinth-perspectives-on-indias/ | excerpt |
| C4 | Agarwal, Indian Higher Education: Envisioning the Future | 2009 | book | system review | Private professional education the “most dynamic segment”; 43% of institutions, 30% of enrolment private-unfunded | T1 supports | https://sk.sagepub.com/books/indian-higher-education | excerpt |
| C5 | Tilak | 2002–2023 | papers | household expenditure + AISHE | Self-financing institutions “charge any level of fees … government opting not to interfere” | T1 supports | https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1350613.pdf | excerpt |
| C6 | Duraisamy (Springer) | 2023 | chapter | AISHE/UGC series | Private-unaided share 25% (2000-01) → 58% (2012-13), from “inability of state governments to step up public funding” | T1 supports (states defaulted) | https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-7391-8_11 | verbatim |
| C7 | MoE AISHE 2021-22 | 2024 | official | census | 65% of colleges private-unaided; 74% of university students in government universities | T1 supports | https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1999713 | excerpt |
| C8 | Careers360 (AICTE data) | 2022 | data journalism | intake vs enrolment | UG engineering vacancy 44% (2019-20, 2020-21), 34% (2021-22); 2018-19 batch 64% graduated, 60% placed | T5 nuance: degree tier half-empty too | https://news.careers360.com/btech-engineering-college-aicte-data-course-placement-admission-graduation-aishe-vacant-seats | excerpt |
| C9 | Lok Sabha reply (Pradhan) via Careers360 | 2021 | parliamentary | AICTE | 5.62 lakh engineering seats cut since 2019; moratorium on new colleges | T1, T5 | https://news.careers360.com/5.62-lakh-engineering-seats-cut-btech-diploma-aicte-dharmendra-pradhan-lok-sabha-education-ministry/amp | excerpt |
| C10 | ThePrint (AICTE) | 2024 | investigation | 2019-24 | 2m of 6.4m B.Tech seats unfilled; 48% of enrolled 2019-23 placed | T5 nuance; T2 nuance | https://theprint.in/india/education/indias-engineering-courses-are-losing-their-sheen-low-enrolment-placement-rates-present-grim-picture/2538476/ | excerpt |
| C11 | Careers360 | 2025 | data journalism | AICTE 2024-25 | +2 lakh seats (CSE/AI) after accreditation precondition dropped; AP 1.2 lakh vacant | T1 supports: supply overshoots | https://news.careers360.com/btech-admissions-2024-2025-lakhs-seats-empty-cse-private-engineering-colleges-tamil-nadu-gujarat-karnataka-andhra-pradesh-aicte | excerpt |
| C12 | Careers360 (AICTE closures) | 2025 | news | closure list | 58 colleges closed 2025-26 | T5 context | https://news.careers360.com/aicte-58-engineering-technical-colleges-closed-academic-year-2025-26-btech-admission | excerpt |
| C13 | DT Next (Anna University) | 2024 | news | affiliation data | 552 colleges (2014) → ~433 admitting; 2.32 lakh vacancies 2024-25 | T5 nuance | https://www.dtnext.in/news/tamilnadu/nine-engineering-colleges-affiliated-to-anna-university-to-be-closed-796083 | excerpt |
| C14 | Deccan Herald (Karnataka government colleges) | 2024 | news | state data | 50% faculty posts vacant in government engineering colleges; 1,550 of 5,769 government seats unfilled | T1 supports strongly: public middle starved | https://www.deccanherald.com/india/karnataka/faculty-crisis-at-karnataka-govt-engg-colleges-as-50-positions-vacant-3335698 | excerpt |
| C15 | CAG Report 20 of 2021 (new IITs) | 2021 | audit | 8 IITs, 2014-19 | Faculty vacancies 5–36%; intake a third of target; capital cost +135% | T1 nuance: top funded, delivery weak | https://cag.gov.in/uploads/download_audit_report/2021/Report%20No.%2020%20of%202021_IITs_English_PDF%20A-061c2ed6ce12811.66323547.pdf | excerpt |
| C16 | Kakodkar Committee | 2011 | government committee | IIT review | UG fee ₹50,000 → ₹2.5 lakh to cover operating cost | T1 nuance | https://www.orissalinks.com/archives/6529 | excerpt |
| C17 | Parliamentary Standing Committee (Labour/Skill) | 2025 | parliamentary | MSDE polytechnic scheme | 105 of 500 polytechnics upgraded; 159 of 295 new built; “faculty shortage, vacant seats, low employability” | T4, T5 support | https://news.careers360.com/105-polytechnic-institutes-upgraded-30-pc-women-hostels-not-built-scheme-delay-skill-development-msde-parliament-report/amp | excerpt |
| C18 | Careers360 (AICTE polytechnic autonomy) | 2025 | data journalism | AICTE 2024-25 | 3,566 polytechnics, 59% private; enrolment declining; stakeholders want transfer to MSDE | T4, T5, T1 support | https://news.careers360.com/polytechnic-courses-diploma-engineering-colleges-crisis-aicte-autonomy-vacant-seats-teacher-low-poly-admission-jobs-10th-12th/amp | excerpt |
| C19 | Parliamentary Standing Committee on Education, 375th report | 2026 | parliamentary | DfG 2026-27 | 133 of 209 AICTE posts vacant | T1 nuance: regulator hollow | https://m.thewire.in/article/education/parliamentary-panel-flags-critical-vacancy-situation-in-ugc-and-aicte | excerpt |
| C20 | NASSCOM–McKinsey | 2005 | industry report | employer survey | 25% of technical graduates suitable for offshore IT/BPO without training | T2 nuance: original figure sector-specific | https://www.dqindia.com/the-truth-of-the-matter/ | excerpt |
| C21 | Blom & Saeki (World Bank) | 2011 | employer survey | 157 employers | 64% “only somewhat satisfied or worse”; gaps in higher-order thinking | T2, T5 nuance | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1822959 | verbatim |
| C22 | Aspiring Minds NER | 2011–2019 | vendor report | AMCAT | “80% unemployable” for knowledge economy; vendor thresholds | T2 supports weakly | https://www.aspiringminds.com/research-reports/national-employability-report-for-engineers-2019/ | excerpt |
| C23 | Wheebox/CII/AICTE ISR | 2019, 2024 | test | 3.9 lakh candidates | Engineering employability 58% (2019), 43% (2024) | contradicts C22 | https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-employability-rises-to-47-engineers-most-employable-study-118112200995_1.html | excerpt |
| C24 | Loyalka et al., PNAS | 2019 | cross-national test | CS seniors, 4 countries | US average senior above elite China/India/Russia | T1 nuance | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1814646116 | excerpt |
| C25 | Loyalka et al., Nature Human Behaviour | 2021 | longitudinal | CS/EE students | Indian students gain academic skills but not critical thinking over four years | T5 nuance | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01062-3 | excerpt |
| C26 | PIB / Finance Ministry (education loans) | 2025 | official | PSB loan book | Gross NPA 7% (FY21) → 2% (FY25); engineering 9.8%, nursing 21.3% of PSB education NPAs at peak | T1, T2 nuance | https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2204268 | excerpt |
| C27 | Deccan Herald (Karnataka fee regulation) | 2025 | news | negotiation | 7.5% hike; fees ₹21,360 (UVCE) to ₹1,22,300 (private) | T1 supports | https://www.deccanherald.com/india/karnataka/state-govt-allows-private-engineering-colleges-to-hike-fees-by-7-5-3533810 | excerpt |
Table D. Public spending, skilling policy design, comparators
Section titled “Table D. Public spending, skilling policy design, comparators”| # | Author / org | Year | Type | Data and method | Key finding | Bearing | URL | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | PRS, DfG 2025-26 Education | 2025 | budget analysis | budget documents | MoE ₹1,28,650 cr; higher education ₹50,078 cr; IITs ₹10,467 cr | T1 supports | https://prsindia.org/budgets/parliament/demand-for-grants-2025-26-analysis-education | excerpt |
| D2 | PRS, DfG 2026-27 Education | 2026 | budget analysis | budget documents | Central HEIs ₹41,303 cr (30% of MoE); MERITE ₹300 cr in 2026-27 | T1 supports strongly | https://prsindia.org/budgets/parliament/demand-for-grants-2026-27-analysis-education | excerpt |
| D3 | MoE, Analysis of Budgeted Expenditure on Education | 2022 | statistical report | Centre + states | Technical education 16.0% of education budget (₹15,533 cr, 2020-21), share falling | T1 nuance | https://www.education.gov.in/analysis-budgeted-expenditure-education | excerpt |
| D4 | Economic Survey 2024-25, ch. 12 | 2025 | government | PLFS + secondary | 8.25% of graduates qualification-matched; >53% graduates under-employed; 78.5 lakh non-farm jobs a year needed to 2030 | T2, T4 support | https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/doc/eschapter/echap12.pdf | excerpt |
| D5 | Wheebox ISR 2024/25 | 2024-25 | private test | 6.5 lakh self-selected | “Employability” 51.25% → 54.81% | source of the Survey figure; weak | https://wheebox.com/assets/pdf/ISR_Report_2025.pdf | excerpt |
| D6 | MoLE / IMPRI on PM-VBRY (ex-ELI) | 2025-26 | review | admin data | ₹99,446 cr outlay; 2.8% disbursed by Aug 2026; 33% of enrolment target | T4 nuance: a wage subsidy, not a route | https://www.impriindia.com/insights/policy-update/pmvbry-employment-linked-incentives/ | excerpt |
| D7 | The Wire; Careers360 (PM Internship) | 2026 | journalism | Lok Sabha replies | 83,000 offers → 24,600 accepted; ₹87 cr of ₹10,831 cr spent; 54% Round-I dropout | T4 supports: no traction | https://m.thewire.in/article/economy/only-1-5-of-funds-used-the-pm-internship-scheme-has-missed-its-targets-by-a-wide-margin | excerpt |
| D8 | Cabinet / PIB (PM-SETU) | 2025 | decision | scheme design | ₹60,000 cr; 1,000 government ITIs; 20 lakh youth | T1 supports | https://news.careers360.com/cabinet-approves-prime-minister-narendra-modi-rs-60000-crore-national-scheme-for-iti-upgradation | excerpt |
| D9 | World Bank PM-SETU PAD | 2026 | appraisal | PforR | $830m; ≥$680m private capital; 1m+ better-skilled a year | T1, T5 | https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099032426094523584/pdf/BOSIB-e2a791a0-b6cf-4c70-a157-e26a46c3ce5a.pdf | excerpt |
| D10 | Cabinet / PMO (MERITE) | 2025 | decision | scheme design | ₹4,200 cr (₹2,100 cr WB loan); 175 engineering colleges + 100 polytechnics; 7.5 lakh students | T1 nuance (14:1) | https://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/news_updates/cabinet-approves-budgetary-support-for-multidisciplinary-education-and-research-improvement-in-technical-education-merite-scheme-with-an-outlay-of-rs-4200-crore/ | excerpt |
| D11 | MoE / PIB; NITI evaluation of RUSA | 2023-25 | scheme + evaluation | RUSA review | PM-USHA ₹13,000 cr 2023-26; NITI found gaps in “skilling, employability” | T1 supports (~₹4,300 cr a year for all state HE) | https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/may/doc202552549901.pdf | excerpt |
| D12 | CAG Report 20 of 2025 (PMKVY) | 2025 | audit | 2015-22 | 41% of certified placed; roles chosen without skill-gap analysis | T4 supports | https://cag.gov.in/uploads/download_audit_report/2025/Report-No.-20-of-2025_PA-PMKVY_English-PDF-A-06943abec463479.68516873.pdf | excerpt |
| D13 | Standing Committee on Labour, Textiles and Skill Development | 2025-26 | parliamentary | MSDE | PMKVY 4.0: 19 lakh certified vs 45 lakh target; ~14% budget used; placements <20%, not monitored | T4 supports; T1 nuance (money unspent) | https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/house-panel-asks-skill-ministry-to-update-placement-details-under-pmkvy-4-0-125042000540_1.html | excerpt |
| D14 | IndiaSpend; Business Standard (PMKVY dashboard) | 2023; 2026 | data journalism | dashboard | Placement 19.5% (2.0) → 5.8% (3.0); Aug 2026: 7% | T4 supports | https://www.indiaspend.com/data-viz/govts-skill-development-scheme-placed-only-18-candidates-876460 | excerpt |
| D15 | Sharada Prasad Committee | 2016 | committee | review | PMKVY placement 12%; short duration; SSC conflicts | T4 supports | https://www.pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=161445 | excerpt |
| D16 | UGC / NCVET NCrF; IMPRI review | 2023; 2026 | framework + review | notification | Levels 1–8; “only one-third of states” notified | T4 nuance | https://www.impriindia.com/insights/policy-update/national-credit-framework-ncrf-2023-implementation-and-way-forward/ | excerpt |
| D17 | UGC B.Voc guidelines; IJSR study | 2014; 2022 | scheme + small study | — | No national B.Voc outcome evaluation exists | T4 supports by absence | https://www.ijsr.net/archive/v11i6/SR22625010323.pdf | excerpt |
| D18 | TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship | 2025 | industry report | own + NAPS data | ~1m apprentices in 10 years; 98% transition to formal employment (self-reported) | T4 supports (instrument works) | https://mediabrief.com/women-apprentices-surge-58-in-three-years-to-197000-teamlease-degree-apprenticeship-report/ | excerpt |
| D19 | Shri Vishwakarma Skill University, Haryana | 2023-25 | institutional | self-reported | Placement 52% → 81% under dual model | T4 supports; single institution | https://www.shiksha.com/university/shri-vishwakarma-skill-university-gurgaon-64545/placement | excerpt |
| D20 | NITI Aayog (Virmani), Education and Skilling for Employment | 2026 | policy report | PLFS | 8.7 cr NEET youth 15–29; skilled generic graduate ₹29,000 vs ₹22,000 unskilled | T2, T4 support | https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-03/Education-and-Skilling-for-Employment-From-Credentials-to-Learning-Outcomes.pdf | excerpt |
| D21 | AICTE via Careers360 | 2025 | admin data | 2019-24 | 12.2m engineering seats sanctioned, 7.81m filled (36% vacant); 3,566 polytechnics, 59% private | T5, T1 support | https://news.careers360.com/polytechnic-courses-diploma-engineering-colleges-crisis-aicte-autonomy-vacant-seats-teacher-low-poly-admission-jobs-10th-12th | excerpt |
| D22 | Regional & Federal Studies, fiscal asymmetry | 2025 | academic | state panel | Poor states depend on transfers for 21–58% of spending; CSS matching “hurt state expenditures in the social sector” | T1, T5 support: why state-owned middle is starved | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13597566.2025.2611238 | excerpt |
| D23 | OECD, Learning for Jobs; Skills beyond School | 2010; 2014 | synthesis | 16+ countries | Short post-secondary programmes struggle for status against degrees; employer engagement “vital, sometimes elusive” | T4, T5 support | https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/skills-beyond-school_9789264214682-en.html | excerpt |
| D24 | BIBB (Germany); Korea MoE; China NPC law | 2022–25 | comparator data | admin | Germany ~1.2m apprentices, ~50% of cohort, 68% retained; Korea Meister 73% employed vs 38% general; China vocational 33% of upper secondary, “equal status” in law | T4 supports; T3 nuance | https://www.bibb.de/en/147677.php | excerpt |
Table E. Commentary and op-eds, 2022–2026
Section titled “Table E. Commentary and op-eds, 2022–2026”| # | Author | Outlet | Date | Argument | Evidence cited | Bearing | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Mehrotra & Parida | The Wire | May 2025 | Jobless youth exiting as discouraged workers; education quality makes them unemployable | PLFS; growth slowdown | T2 nuances | https://thewire.in/economy/india-out-of-work-unemployed-youth-become-discouraged-workers |
| E2 | Mehrotra (interview) | Outlook Business | 2025 | Jobs crisis could keep India poor | farm re-absorption | T2 nuances | https://www.outlookbusiness.com/economy-and-policy/economist-santosh-mehrotra-on-the-jobs-crisis-that-could-keep-india-poor |
| E3 | Kapoor | ThePrint (excerpt) | 2024 | Youth joblessness structural | degree-holders’ share of unemployed 46% → 67% | T2 supports | https://theprint.in/pageturner/excerpt/jobless-youth-are-a-reality-modi-cant-hide-behind-misleading-data-and-a-media-spin/207626/ |
| E4 | Kapoor | LSE South Asia | Feb 2022 | Education rose faster than jobs | PLFS | T2 supports | https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2022/02/21/the-mounting-challenge-of-youth-unemployment-in-india/ |
| E5 | Basole, Abraham (SWI 2023) | via Business Today | Sep 2023 | Graduate glut; waiting for “desirable” salaried work | 42% under-25 graduate unemployment | T2 supports | https://www.businesstoday.in/jobs/story/unemployment-rate-at-42-for-young-graduates-aged-under-25-report-399069-2023-09-20 |
| E6 | Bardhan | Ideas for India | 2024 | Mass vocational education plus apprenticeships, wage subsidies | youth UR 16% vs 1.5% over-30 | T4 supports | https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/human-development/india-s-massive-employment-problem-and-some-ways-out |
| E7 | Bardhan | Substack | Sep 2026 | Youth protests stem from exam gatekeeping of scarce seats and jobs | 2026 protests | T2 supports | https://pranabbardhan.substack.com/p/urban-youth-rebellion-in-india-its |
| E8 | Afridi & Chandna | Ideas for India / NCAER | Jan 2026 | ELI, PM Internship, ITI upgrade are fragmented; need NCrF portability ITI → polytechnic → HE | cross-country | T4 supports; T1 nuances | https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/productivity-innovation/reforming-indias-vocational-skilling-ecosystem |
| E9 | Halder et al. | Ideas for India | Jul 2026 | ITI system mirrors social divides; private ITIs sited away from industry | admin data, fieldwork | T1 supports; T3 nuances | https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/human-development/iit-or-iti-indias-divided-skilling-ecosystem |
| E10 | Wankhar & Baruah | ThePrint / NCAER | Aug 2022 | VET reaches almost nobody | 84% of 12–59 no VET | T4 supports | https://theprint.in/opinion/who-is-vocational-and-technical-training-for-data-shows-over-84-indians-didnt-get-any/1076343/ |
| E11 | opinion | ThePrint | 2024 | ITIs in the Budget; Centre–state collaboration decides | Delhi ITIs 94–97% placement (institute-reported) | T3, T5 nuance | https://theprint.in/opinion/itis-made-it-to-budget-2024-now-centre-states-collaborate-for-a-successful-job-story/2202411/ |
| E12 | opinion | ThePrint | 2025 | Close the skills gap first | 4.4% formal VET | T4 supports | https://theprint.in/opinion/indias-vision-for-viksit-bharat-relies-on-training-youth-well-close-the-skills-gap-first/2245108/ |
| E13 | report | ThePrint | 2025-26 | NITI: “skills not degree”, skills-first PSU hiring pilot | NITI 2047 report | T2 nuances (hiring rules as lever) | https://theprint.in/economy/niti-aayog-wants-india-to-reimagine-skilling-pitches-skills-not-degree-training-from-class-6/3020326/ |
| E14 | — | The Secretariat | Oct 2025 | PM-SETU overdue; industry SPVs fix mismatch | scheme design | T1 supports | https://thesecretariat.in/article/pm-setu-scheme-a-long-overdue-initiative |
| E15 | editorial | Skill Reporter | 2025 | PM-SETU explainer | — | T1 | https://www.skillreporter.com/editorial/insights/pm-setu-pradhan-mantri-skilling-employability-upgradation-iti-msde-scheme/ |
| E16 | investigative | Careers360 | 2025 | Polytechnic crisis; move to MSDE | 5 qualified for autonomy; 59% private | T5, T1 support | https://news.careers360.com/polytechnic-courses-diploma-engineering-colleges-crisis-aicte-autonomy-vacant-seats-teacher-low-poly-admission-jobs-10th-12th |
| E17 | news | Careers360 | 2025 | 58 colleges closed | — | T1 | https://news.careers360.com/aicte-58-engineering-technical-colleges-closed-academic-year-2025-26-btech-admission |
| E18 | news | Careers360 | 2024-25 | CSE/AI boom hollows core branches | +2 lakh seats, AP 1.2 lakh vacant | T1 nuances (over-built) | https://news.careers360.com/btech-admissions-2024-2025-lakhs-seats-empty-cse-private-engineering-colleges-tamil-nadu-gujarat-karnataka-andhra-pradesh-aicte |
| E19 | news | Careers360 | 2021-22 | Seats vacant | Sahasrabudhe: 10 of 14 lakh private seats filled | T1 | https://news.careers360.com/btech-computer-science-engineering-mechanical-electrical-aicte-regional-language-hindi-aktu-karnataka-andhra-uttar-pradesh |
| E20 | news | Careers360 | 2026 | Economic Survey wants ITI-to-degree ladders | ES 2026 | T3 nuances; T4 partly contradicts | https://news.careers360.com/economic-survey-2026-industrial-training-institute-iti-diploma-degree-job-skill-india-development-national-apprenticeship-scheme |
| E21 | editorial | Business Standard | Aug 2026 | From certificates to earnings | 8.25% aligned | T2, T4 support | https://www.business-standard.com/opinion/editorial/skilling-to-employment-126082701502_1.html |
| E22 | news | Business Standard / Business Today | Sep 2026 | PMKVY placed 7% | dashboard | T4 supports | https://www.business-standard.com/education/news/only-7-of-candidates-placed-after-pmkvy-training-shows-data-126090401347_1.html |
| E23 | reportage | Scroll | Mar 2022 | Patna’s coaching economy sells government jobs as the only mobility | Railways workforce 15 → 12 lakh | T2 supports | https://scroll.in/article/1019543/inside-patnas-exam-hub-where-a-million-hopes-die-every-year |
| E24 | ground report | ThePrint | 2022 | Patna aspirants losing hope | field | T2 supports | https://theprint.in/india/education/in-patna-coaching-hub-lakhs-of-youth-live-in-tiny-rooms-dream-of-govt-job-theyre-losing-hope/817558/ |
| E25 | opinion | Deccan Herald | Jun 2024 | NEET leak re-centres recruitment in politics | — | T2 supports | https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/neet-scam-puts-focus-back-on-youth-unemployment-3076699 |
| E26 | news | Tribune | 2024 | Joblessness drives youth anger; government jobs prized | leak cases | T2 supports | https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/beyond-paper-leak-unemployment-driving-youth-anger-in-india |
| E27 | blog | CSEP | Feb 2026 | Employability starts with foundational learning | 33% youth NEET; MSDE ₹9,886 cr | T4 nuances | https://csep.org/blog/classrooms-to-careers-what-the-union-budget-2026-27-gets-right-and-misses/ |
| E28 | expert speak | ORF | 2025 | NEP vocational integration hampered by employer non-participation | 25,000 of 6.3 cr enterprises offer apprenticeships | T4 supports | https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/mainstreaming-vocational-education-in-schools-under-nep-2020 |
| E29 | Kumar | Harvard Kennedy School blog | 2025 | ELI may formalise existing workers | ₹99,446 cr | T4 nuances | https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/wiener/programs/economy/our-work/reimagining-economy-blog/india-employment-linked-incentive |
| E30 | — | The Federal | 2025 | ELI an “extravagant subsidy” | — | T4 nuances | https://thefederal.com/the-federal-special/employment-linked-incentive-eli-scheme-jobs-india-inc-196467 |
Not found in any pass
Section titled “Not found in any pass”PRS Demand for Grants analysis for MSDE; any state technical-education budget analysis; official NAPS totals; a B.Voc outcome study; the ITI entrant qualification profile (the direct test of T3); a polytechnic completion rate from any source; a PLFS-era public-sector wage premium estimate; a peer-reviewed critique of the Aspiring Minds employability figures; a NEP vocational- integration evaluation; Mint, Hindustan Times, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Yamini Aiyar or Manish Sabharwal pieces on this topic (search budget exhausted before they surfaced).